Global Macro Preview: Prices, Policies & Priorities

What to Watch

🔍 Key Inflation Indicators Across the Globe

• United States: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and export/import prices will reveal inflation trends.

• Global Hotspots: Inflation figures from Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Russia, and India are under the spotlight.

💱 Monetary Policy Updates
Central banks in the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Switzerland will unveil their next moves on interest rates and economic strategy.

📈 Country-Specific Data to Watch

• China: Consumer/producer inflation, trade data, and New Yuan Loans.

• Germany: Balance of trade and wholesale price updates.

• UK: October’s GDP growth and industrial production.

• Australia: Labour reports and NAB business confidence insights.

• Japan: Tankan manufacturing index trends.

Americas

Inflation Takes Center Stage 🔥

🇺🇸 US Inflation Watch

• Annual CPI expected to rise to 2.7%, a 4-month high, while monthly inflation stays steady at 0.2%.

• Core inflation likely unchanged at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly.

• Producer inflation (PPI) forecast:

  • Annual: Up to 2.5% from 2.4%.

  • Core PPI Annual: Up to 3.3% from 3.1%.

  • Monthly: Steady at 0.3%.
    🚀 Other releases to watch: wholesale inventories, labor costs, NFIB Business Optimism Index, and the federal budget.

🇨🇦 Canada: Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50bps, continuing its easing streak.
🇧🇷 Brazil: A sharp 75bps rate hike is likely as inflation pressures mount, alongside CPI updates for Brazil and Mexico.

Europe

📉 Interest Rate Cuts and Key Economic Indicators to Watch This Week 🔎

🇪🇺 Europe's Central Bank Moves

• ECB: Expected to cap 2024 with a 25bps rate cut, the fourth this year.

• Swiss National Bank: Likely to cut its policy rate to 0.75%, also marking its fourth consecutive reduction.

📊 Macroeconomic Insights:

• Euro Area: Industrial activity expected to rebound in October.

• Germany: Exports forecast to decline more than imports.

• Russia: Annual inflation likely to rise after a brief cooling-off period.

• UK: Eyes on GDP, industrial production, and trade balance data.

🌍 Other Key Data to Watch:

• Final inflation readings: Germany and France.

• Industrial output: Italy and Turkey.

• Consumer confidence: Switzerland.

• Unemployment: Turkey.

Asia Pacific

📊 Asia-Pacific Economic Highlights: A Week of Critical Updates 🌏

🇨🇳 China: Economic Pulse

• Inflation: CPI expected at 0.5% YoY (up from 0.3%); PPI forecast to drop 2.8% YoY (slight improvement from -2.9%).

• Trade Data: Export growth likely to slow, imports set for a rebound.

• Lending Recovery: New yuan loans expected to surge to CNY 950 billion, bouncing back from historic lows.

🇦🇺 Australia: Labor Market in Focus

• RBA: Likely to hold rates at 4.35%, awaiting clearer inflation trends.

• Jobs: Unemployment expected to rise by 20,000, with jobless rate ticking up to 4.2%.

• NAB Business Confidence: Another key indicator for investor sentiment.

🇯🇵 Japan: Data Bonanza

• GDP: Final Q3 growth figures.

• Other Indicators: Tankan indexes, Eco Watchers Survey, machine tool orders, producer prices, and industrial production.

🇮🇳 India: Mixed Signals

• Inflation: Expected to cool to 5.5% YoY (down from 6.21%).

• Industrial Production: Anticipated strong growth of 3.7% YoY.

🌏 Regional Trade Data

• Focus on Philippines and Taiwan trade performance.